According to the statistical analysis of China Automobile Industry Association, in November 2021, the production and sales of automobiles continued to grow month on month, which was generally better than the forecast at the beginning of the month. The specific analysis is as follows:
1、 Overview of overall operation
In November, China's macroeconomic operation was generally stable. The effectiveness of a series of policies and measures issued by the Party Central Committee and the State Council to strengthen energy supply security and stabilize market prices continued to show. The shortage of power supply was eased, the prices of raw materials fell, the prosperity of the manufacturing industry expanded, and the non manufacturing industry remained stable and recovered as a whole. The automobile industry has made efforts to overcome the impact of tight chip supply, sporadic outbreak, and adjustment of policies and regulations. The overall production and marketing situation is slightly better than expected at the beginning of the month.
From the situation of that month, the automobile production and sales continued to decline in November compared with the same period of last year. In terms of vehicle types, although the supply of chips is still insufficient and the outbreak of sporadic epidemic has affected passenger cars, the monthly production and sales have increased month on month, and the operation trend is basically the same as that in October; Due to the switching of national six emission regulations, the expected consumption wait-and-see brought by the "blue light truck" policy adjustment and the continuous reduction of industry dividends, the production and sales of commercial vehicles still showed a sharp decline year-on-year, and the operation situation was weaker than that in October. Although the downward pressure on automobile production and sales is great, there are still some bright spots in the industry. First, the market demand for new energy vehicles is still strong, and the production and sales continue to reach a new high. The cumulative output has exceeded 3million, and the sales volume is close to 3million. The cumulative sales penetration rate from January to November has increased to 12.7%. At present, consumers' acceptance of new energy vehicles is getting higher and higher, and the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy driven to market driven; Second, the automobile export of this month also continued to maintain a high-speed growth year-on-year; Third, the share of Chinese brand passenger cars has maintained growth for 8 consecutive months year-on-year.
Looking forward to December, with the steady and positive development of macro-economy, automobile consumption demand is still stable. However, there is still uncertainty in the supply side, and the problem of tight chip supply still exists. At the end of the year, the orderly use of electricity in various regions and the domestic sporadic epidemic increased the potential risk of supply interruption in the industrial chain of the automotive industry. Superimposed on the high base factor in the same period last year, the pressure on automobile production and sales to maintain stability is still large. According to comprehensive judgment, the annual automobile production and sales volume will be slightly higher than that of the same period last year.
2、 Operation of automobile industry in November 2021:
1. Year on year decline in automobile production and sales
In November, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.585 million and 2.522 million respectively, of which the actual sales volume was better than the forecast at the beginning of the month. In terms of growth rate changes, production and sales increased by 10.9% and 8.1% month on month, and decreased by 9.3% and 9.1% year on year. The decline in output was 0.5 percentage points higher than that in October, and the decline in sales was 0.3 percentage points lower than that in October. Compared with the same period in 2019, the output decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, and the sales volume increased by 2.5% year-on-year. Among them, the output growth rate changed from positive to negative compared with October, and the sales growth rate increased by 1 percentage point compared with October. In December last year, the automobile production and sales level was the highest in the whole year, with 2.83 million vehicles. The problem of insufficient supply of superimposed chips still exists. Therefore, the automobile industry is still facing great pressure in December this year.
From January to November, 23.172 million and 23.489 million vehicles were produced and sold, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% and 4.5% respectively. The growth rate continued to drop by 1.9 percentage points compared with that from January to October. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales increased by 0.5% and 1.5% year-on-year respectively, the output growth rate decreased by 0.1% compared with that from January to October, and the sales growth rate increased by 0.1% compared with that from January to October.
2. The production and sales of passenger cars decreased year on year, and luxury cars continued to grow
In November, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.231 million and 2.192 million respectively, up 12.2% and 9.2% month on month, down 4.3% and 4.7% year on year, 0.4% and 0.3% lower than that in October. In terms of models, the production and sales of the four types of models decreased year-on-year. Compared with 2019, the production and sales of passenger cars increased by 3% and 6.5% year-on-year, 0.6 and 3.1 percentage points higher than that in October. In November, the supply of automotive chips was still tight, and the passenger car market continued to operate at a low level, basically the same as that in October, due to the impact of the domestic sporadic epidemic.
From January to November, the production and sales of passenger cars were 18.879 million and 19.06 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 6.9% and 7.1% respectively. The growth rate was 1.7 percentage points lower than that from January to October. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales decreased by 1.7% and 1% year-on-year respectively, 0.6 and 0.9 percentage points narrower than that from January to October.
In November, the sales volume of domestically produced luxury cars reached 319000, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, 9.4 percentage points lower than that in October. From January to November, the sales volume of domestic luxury cars reached 3.112 million, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%, 12.4 percentage points higher than the cumulative growth rate of passenger cars.
3. The production and sales of commercial vehicles decreased significantly year-on-year
In November, the production and sales of commercial vehicles reached 353000 and 330000 respectively, with a month on month growth of 3.2% and 1.1% respectively; The year-on-year decline was 31.9% and 30.3% respectively, and the decline was 5 and 0.6 percentage points higher than that in October. In terms of vehicle types, both freight cars and passenger cars showed a decline. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales of commercial vehicles decreased by 18% and 17.6% year-on-year, with a decrease of 13.7 and 8.7 percentage points respectively compared with October. Affected by the switch of national six emission standards, the consumption wait-and-see brought about by the "blue light truck" policy expectation, the coldness of the real estate development industry and the gradual weakening of the policy dividend in the early stage, the market demand for commercial vehicles in the second half of the year was weaker than that in the first half of the year.
From January to November, the production and sales of commercial vehicles reached 4.293 million and 4.429 million respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% and 5.3% respectively, an increase of 2.8 percentage points over both January and October. According to the production and sales of different models, the growth rate of passenger cars dropped and that of freight cars expanded. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased by 11.1% and 14.2% year-on-year, down 3.7 and 3.6 percentage points respectively from January to October.
According to the breakdown of passenger and freight models, the sales of other models decreased year-on-year, except for the growth of micro cargo sales this month. Among them, heavy trucks have the largest reduction. The year-on-year reduction of light trucks is also large. Among passenger cars, the year-on-year decline of light passenger cars was further expanded than that of the previous month.
4. The production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 400000
In November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 457000 and 450000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times respectively. Among them, 372000 and 361000 pure electric vehicles were produced and sold respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times respectively; The production and sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles were 85000 and 89000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times and 1.7 times respectively; The production and sales of fuel cell vehicles were 212 and 147 respectively, down 26.4% and 49.3% year on year. The production and sales of new energy continued to set new records this month. From the perspective of segment models, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles also set new records. In November, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 17.8%, which continued to be higher than that of last month, and the market penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.5%.
From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.023 million and 2.99 million respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year. The market penetration rate reached 12.7%, higher than that in the previous October. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 2.504 million and 2.466 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8 times and 1.7 times respectively; The production and sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles reached 517000 and 522000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively; The production and sales of fuel cell vehicles reached 1000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 23.0% and 16.0% respectively.
5. The market share of Chinese brand passenger cars continued to grow year on year
In November, a total of 1022000 Chinese brand passenger cars were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and the market share reached 46.6%, an increase of 5.2 percentage points over the same period.
From January to November, a total of 8.406 million Chinese brand passenger cars were sold, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%, and the market share reached 44.1%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points over the same period.
6. The market concentration of key enterprise groups is lower than that of the same period
From January to November, the top ten enterprise groups in terms of automobile sales totaled 20.98 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, accounting for 86.0% of the total automobile sales, 1.8 percentage points lower than that of the same period of the previous year.
7. Automobile export maintained rapid growth year on year
In November, automobile enterprises exported 200000 vehicles, a month on month decrease of 13.6% and a year-on-year increase of 59.1%. In terms of models, the export of passenger cars this month was 170000, a month on month decrease of 14.1% and a year-on-year increase of 71.2%; The export of commercial vehicles was 30000, a month on month decrease of 10.5% and a year-on-year increase of 13.0%. The contribution of export growth of new energy vehicles this month was 32.9%.
From January to November, automobile enterprises exported 1.793 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 times. In terms of models, the export of passenger cars was 1427000, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times; The export of commercial vehicles was 366000, a year-on-year increase of 77.0%.